Midterm Elections and Bitcoin: BTC Dips 2.2%, Then Recovers

Bitcoin dipped about 2.2% overnight as US midterm results came in, then recovered most of it by the London open. On Binance spot, BTC fell from $77,453.85 at 00:00 UTC on 4 November to a low of $75,736.38, and was trading near $78,140 at 07:40 UTC, 0.89% above the 00:00 UTC open. The 4h structure still reads bearish for five of six coins we track here.

What happened

Cointelegraph reported on 4 November that Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. The article does not name the outlet that called the races, and other outlets we saw on the same day said counting was still underway. We have not verified final seat counts, so treat the result as the reported outcome, not a certified one.

On the market side, the same report puts BTC at a seven-week low of $75,618 on Bitstamp, citing CoinGlass for $288 million of crypto long liquidations over 24 hours. Talos research head Kelly Ye said Bitcoin moved about 1.7% after the polls closed, close to the roughly 1.8% options had priced, and that there was "no major leverage flush." Our numbers below come from Binance, so the low differs slightly from Bitstamp's.

What the chart did

We measure from the 00:00 UTC open of 4 November, the start of the daily candle. This is a reference time, not the exact time of any race call, which we could not source.

The sell-off came in steps. Price held a narrow range near $77,900 until 23:00 UTC, lost the $77,000 area in the 02:00 UTC hour, and bottomed at $75,736.38 inside the 03:00 hour. It then recovered roughly $2,400 in four hours. The 24h row stays empty until that period has elapsed.

Structure context

On the 15m chart the engine marked a bearish external CHoCH at $76,388.88 on the 02:45 UTC bar, and a bullish external CHoCH at $78,063.30 on the 07:00 bar, followed by an internal bullish BOS at $78,164. On the 4h chart Bitcoin is still bearish: the latest 4h event is a bearish BOS at $77,620 from 2 November, and price has only just returned above that level.

Across the other coins, Ethereum dropped 2.12% at its low and sits +1.20% from the 00:00 UTC open, with a 4h bias that is bearish. Solana had the deepest dip of the majors, −3.19%, and XRP is the only one still below its open (−0.13%). BNB printed a bearish 4h CHoCH at $691.66 on the 00:00 UTC bar. NEAR is the outlier: it dipped 3.68%, then printed a bullish 4h BOS at $3.938 on the 04:00 UTC bar and reads bullish, +4.65% from the open. We found no sourced link between the election and NEAR's move, so we do not draw one. Timeframes can disagree; the methodology explains how bias is read.

What to watch next

• BTC around $77,620 on the 4h chart. Holding above the level of the 2 November bearish BOS matters more than the overnight low. The 50-week moving average near $75,733, cited by Cointelegraph, sits next to the overnight low.
• Policy follow-through. Cointelegraph notes analysts expect the market-structure bill (the CLARITY Act) to face a slower path under a Democratic Congress. That is analyst opinion, not a result.
• The 24h mark. Fill the last row of the table after 00:00 UTC on 5 November, not before.

More market stories are in the news hub.

FAQ

How did Bitcoin react to the 2026 US midterm elections? BTC fell 2.22% from the 00:00 UTC open on 4 November to a low of $75,736.38 on Binance, then recovered to about $78,140 by 07:40 UTC.

Did the midterms change the crypto trend? Not on our structure data. BTC's 4h bias is still bearish at 07:40 UTC, with a 15m bullish CHoCH after the dip. One overnight move does not change the 4h reading.

Is the midterm result final? Cointelegraph reports Democrats winning both chambers, but other outlets said counting was still underway on 4 November. We did not verify final seat counts.