Market Cap vs FDV: The Number That Hides Future Supply

Market cap values a coin using only the tokens in circulation today. Fully diluted valuation (FDV) values it as if every token in the total supply were already circulating, at the same price. The gap between the two is the supply that has not reached the market yet, so a coin with an FDV far above its market cap has a lot of new supply still to come.

CoinGecko defines FDV as "the total value of a cryptocurrency project assuming all of its tokens are in circulation". This guide shows how to compute both numbers, how to read the ratio, and what the ratio does not tell you. All coin data comes from the CoinGecko API, fetched on 23 Oct 2026.

How market cap and FDV are calculated

The two formulas differ in one input. CoinGecko's guide gives them as:

• Market cap = token price × circulating supply
• Fully diluted valuation = token price × total supply

Circulating supply is the part counted as in circulation today. Total supply, in CoinGecko's words, also includes "the tokens pending distribution, excluding any coins that have been burned". That pending part is supply that is not yet distributed, so it is not in the market cap.

Because both numbers use the same price, the price cancels when you divide one by the other. The ratio is simply total supply divided by circulating supply. That is the number to remember: FDV ÷ market cap.

A ratio of 1.00 means total supply is already circulating. A ratio of 2.43 means the total supply is 2.43 times what circulates now.

What the ratio looks like on real coins

On 23 Oct 2026 CoinGecko reported these values for five coins. The ratio is calculated from them.

Bitcoin and Ethereum sit at 1.00. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko listed 20,102,421 coins in circulation and 20,102,456 in total supply, with a 21,000,000 maximum. The coins not yet mined are not counted in FDV on CoinGecko, because it uses total supply, not max supply. For Ethereum, CoinGecko listed no max supply and reported FDV equal to market cap.

The other three coins show the effect of supply that is still to come:

• Sui (SUI): market cap $4.07 billion, FDV $9.89 billion. About 4.12 billion of 10 billion tokens circulate, roughly 41%. See the SUI market page.
• Arbitrum (ARB): market cap $1.25 billion, FDV $1.81 billion. About 6.89 billion of 10 billion tokens circulate, roughly 69%.
• Aptos (APT): market cap $0.67 billion, FDV $0.92 billion. About 883 million of 1.21 billion total tokens circulate, roughly 73%.

These are snapshots. They move every day with price, and the circulating share changes as tokens unlock. The point is the shape: two coins close to 1.00, and others where a meaningful part of the supply has yet to arrive.

Why FDV matters for a trader

New supply has to be absorbed by someone. When locked tokens unlock, their holders can sell, stake or hold them. If demand does not grow with the supply, price has to absorb the difference. FDV is a way to see how large that potential supply is before you look at the unlock calendar.

It also changes how you compare coins. Two coins can both have a $1 billion market cap. If one has an FDV of $1.1 billion and the other $5 billion, they carry very different amounts of future supply. Comparing market cap alone hides that.

For a sense of how supply and sentiment interact, see the Fear and Greed Index guide, and for how large capital flows are measured, Bitcoin ETF flows.

What FDV does not tell you

CoinGecko itself warns that FDV is theoretical. It describes FDV as "a statistical representation of the maximum value of a cryptocurrency project" and notes that it ignores demand: it shows what the value would be if the tokens were released, without accounting for how the market would respond. It also says that whether FDV is realistic "is a mere presumption and may have a wide error margin".

Keep four limits in mind:

1. FDV is not a price target. Multiplying today's price by a larger supply does not predict what the coin will be worth. Price changes when supply is released.
2. It says nothing about timing. A ratio of 2.43 does not tell you whether tokens unlock over months or years. You need the project's unlock schedule for that.
3. It depends on the data provider. CoinGecko says FDV uses total supply, and notes that some coins have no FDV when they lack a max supply. Other sites may use max supply. Compare numbers from the same source.
4. Supply data can be wrong or stale. Circulating supply depends on how the data provider counts it. Check it against the project's own documentation.

How to read a coin's FDV in five steps

1. Compute FDV ÷ market cap. Both numbers are on the coin's CoinGecko page. A value near 1.00 means little supply is left to release.
2. Find the circulating share. Circulating supply divided by total supply. Sui at about 41% is a very different case from Aptos at about 73%.
3. Read the unlock schedule. The project's tokenomics page or docs show who holds the locked tokens and when they release. Do not assume the release is gradual or one-off.
4. Check the max supply. If there is no max supply, supply can keep growing and FDV may not be shown or may not capture it.
5. Compare liquidity to size. A small market cap with a large FDV and thin order books is more fragile than a large, liquid coin with the same ratio.

Then look at the chart. Supply tells you what could come to market; the structure of price tells you how the market is handling it today. The BiasNex markets pages show the live chart and structure for the coins we cover, and the handbook category has more guides in this series.

Common mistakes

• Treating a low market cap as "cheap". A small market cap with a large FDV can mean most of the supply is still locked.
• Comparing FDV across sites. Different supply definitions give different FDVs for the same coin.
• Using FDV alone. It is one input next to unlocks, liquidity and demand.
• Reading a high FDV as a sell signal. It is a measure of potential supply, not a prediction of what the price will do.

FAQ

What is the difference between market cap and FDV? Market cap is price times circulating supply. FDV is price times total supply on CoinGecko. The gap is the supply that is not yet circulating.

Is a high FDV bad? Not by itself. It means a large share of the supply has yet to be released. Whether that matters depends on the unlock schedule, the holders and the demand for the token.

Why is Bitcoin's FDV almost equal to its market cap? On 23 Oct 2026 CoinGecko listed 20,102,421 BTC in circulation and 20,102,456 in total supply. Since FDV uses total supply, the two numbers are almost the same.

Do all coins have an FDV? No. CoinGecko says some coins show no FDV because they have no max supply. Check the coin's page on the data provider you use.

Sources

• CoinGecko Learn: What Is Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) in Crypto?, checked 23 Oct 2026.
• CoinGecko API, coin data for bitcoin, ethereum, sui, aptos and arbitrum, fetched 23 Oct 2026.