Bitcoin on FOMC Days: What the Last 24 Decisions Did to the Two-Hour Range

How does FOMC affect Bitcoin? In the last 24 FOMC rate decisions, the BTCUSDT range in the two hours after the 2:00 p.m. New York release had a median of 2.17% of price, against 0.99% in the two hours before it. The after-window was wider in 20 of 24 meetings. This FOMC Bitcoin study measures volatility, not direction: BTC ended the two hours lower in 16 meetings and higher in 8, and 24 meetings cannot tell us why.

Everything below is computed from Binance 5-minute candles, fetched on 25 Oct 2026, and the meeting dates and release times come from federalreserve.gov. The method is in a box so you can check it, and the full 24-meeting table is further down. If you want the plain-language version of what the FOMC decides, read what the FOMC decision means for crypto first.

How does FOMC affect Bitcoin's two-hour range?

The short answer from the data: the range roughly doubles. The median meeting had an after-range 2.3 times its before-range. The median before-window was 0.99% wide, the middle half of meetings sat between 0.80% and 1.20%, and only one of 24 reached 2%. The median after-window was 2.17%, the middle half sat between 1.47% and 3.06%, and 12 of 24 reached 2%.

Each dot is one meeting. The white line is the median. The before dots are tight, and the after dots spread out, which is the more useful half of the finding: the size of the move is not predictable from the fact that it is a Fed day. The smallest after-range was 0.88% (1 Nov 2023) and the largest was 4.48% (1 May 2024).

The pattern did not hold every time. In 4 of 24 meetings the after-window was narrower than the before-window: 20 Mar 2024, 7 Nov 2024, 18 Jun 2025 and 28 Jan 2026. On 20 Mar 2024 the two hours before the release were already unusually wide, at 4.30%, the largest before-range in the sample.

Method box

• Meetings. The 24 scheduled FOMC rate decisions from 1 Nov 2023 to 16 Sep 2026, taken from the FOMC calendar. We opened each decision's statement on federalreserve.gov on 25 Oct 2026 and confirmed the date and the "For release at 2:00 p.m." line (EDT or EST). All 24 dates verified; none was dropped.
• Left out. The 22 Aug 2025 notation vote (the calendar lists it as not a scheduled two-day meeting) and the 27-28 Oct 2026 meeting, which has not happened yet.
• Release time in UTC. 14:00 New York time is 18:00 UTC while the US is on daylight time (17 meetings) and 19:00 UTC on standard time (7 meetings). In Moscow time, which does not change, that is 21:00 or 22:00 MSK.
• Candles. Binance spot BTCUSDT, 5-minute, fetched 25 Oct 2026. No other venue was used.
• Before window. The 24 candles from release minus 2h up to release minus 5 min. After window. The 24 candles from the release candle (opening at 18:00 or 19:00 UTC) through release plus 1h55m. The release candle belongs to the after window.
• Range. Highest high minus lowest low inside the window, as a percentage of the release candle's open. Both windows use the same price, so they are comparable.
• 2h move. The close of the last after-window candle against the release candle's open.
• Not measured. Why price moved. The windows contain everything else that traded in those four hours.

The full 24-meeting table

Dates are decision days. "Before" and "After" are the two-hour ranges defined in the method box, in % of the release price. "2h move" is the net move over the after-window.

Of the 24 decisions, 17 left the target range unchanged, 6 cut it and 1 raised it, according to the statements. The median after-range was 1.90% for the 17 holds and 2.56% for the 6 cuts. Six cuts and one hike are too few to say that the kind of decision matters, so treat that as a description of this sample only.

On direction, BTC closed the after-window below the release price in 16 meetings and above it in 8, with a median move of -0.48%. The moves ran from -3.78% (18 Dec 2024) to +2.62% (20 Mar 2024). The median absolute move was 0.82%, smaller than the median range, which means price usually travelled further than it ended up. In 24 meetings that is a description of the period, not a tendency you can lean on.

Compared with an ordinary afternoon

A range of 2% sounds large, but BTC moves on ordinary days too. To check, we measured the same two-hour window at the same UTC hour, on the same weekday, one and two weeks before and after each meeting. That gives 96 control windows. Their median range was 0.93%, close to the 0.99% in the pre-release windows.

Against that baseline, the FOMC after-window was wider than the median of its own four control windows in 21 of 24 meetings. The control days are not guaranteed to be quiet: other data releases and news can land in them. They show what an ordinary afternoon on the same weekday looked like in the same weeks, not a clean no-news benchmark.

When the volatility arrives

The range tells you how big the move was over two hours. It does not say when it came. The heatmap splits the four hours into 24 ten-minute buckets, one row per meeting.

Each cell is the ten-minute high minus low, as a percentage of the release price. The column marked 0 is the first ten minutes after the release. Across the 24 meetings, the median ten-minute range was between 0.21% and 0.35% in each of the twelve buckets before the release. In the first bucket after it, the median was 0.79%. From 10 to 110 minutes after, the median stayed between 0.41% and 0.66%, and it came back to 0.37% and 0.31% in the last two buckets.

The first ten minutes are the busiest, and activity stays above the pre-release level for the next hour and a half. These are medians across 24 meetings, so they hide how much individual rows differ.

How it looks on a real chart

Take 29 Oct 2025, a 25 bp cut with the statement at 18:00 UTC (21:00 MSK). The two hours before the release traded in a range of 0.86% of the release price. The after-window ran from a high of 112,030 in the release candle itself to a low of 109,200 at 18:40 UTC, a range of 2.53%. At the end of the window (20:00 UTC) BTC had closed 1.11% below the release candle's open.

That day is not an extreme: its after-range of 2.53% is a little above the 2.17% median, and its ratio of 2.9 is a little above the 2.3 median. It also shows why the measure is a range and not a move. Price set the high in the release candle, fell to the low at 18:40 UTC and recovered part of the drop, so the 1.11% net move is smaller than the 2.53% the window recorded.

To see the same release time on your own clock, use the trading sessions tool. The US clock change matters here. On 1 Nov 2026 the US moves back to standard time, so the same 2:00 p.m. New York release moves from 18:00 to 19:00 UTC, as the session times post explains. The next meeting is listed on 27-28 Oct 2026. If it follows the same 2:00 p.m. schedule as all 24 here, that is 18:00 UTC and 21:00 MSK, but the statement is not out yet, so check the Fed's page. Update: the meeting has since happened and the Fed held the range; Bitcoin after the Fed decision covers the first 50 minutes.

What this does not show

• No forecast. The study says the two hours after the release tended to be wider. It does not say which way, or by how much next time. The after-range ran from 0.88% to 4.48%.
• Small sample. 24 meetings, one coin, one venue. Subgroups (6 cuts, 1 hike) are too small to compare.
• Not a cause. Other things trade at 18:00 and 19:00 UTC. The Fed statement is the scheduled event in the window; the data cannot prove it is the reason for any single move.
• Mixed regimes. The release price runs from about 34,500 (1 Nov 2023, the lowest in the sample) to about 117,800 (30 Jul 2025, the highest), which is why we use percentages of price.

For the structure side of the same days, the BTC market page shows live BOS and CHoCH events, and our methodology page explains how the engine defines them. The Learn ICT hub lists the related guides, including ICT macro times.

Common mistakes

• Reading the range as a direction. A wide after-window means both sides were traded. In this sample BTC closed the window lower more often than higher, but the moves went both ways and the sample is small.
• Comparing raw price moves across years. A 1,000 USD move meant something different at 35,000 than at 115,000. Use percentages.
• Using the wrong release time. The statement is at 2:00 p.m. New York time. That is 18:00 UTC in summer and 19:00 UTC in winter, so a calendar saved last winter can be an hour off.
• Starting the "before" window late. If you measure the quiet period from a few minutes before the release, you get a smaller baseline and a bigger ratio. Fix the window in advance.
• Treating the hold or cut as the signal. The size of the move did not track the kind of decision in a way 6 cuts and 1 hike can support.
• Sizing to the average. The after-range ran from 0.88% to 4.48%. A stop sized for the median move does not cover the largest one; our position size calculator lets you test a wider stop.

FAQ

How does FOMC affect Bitcoin? In the 24 decisions studied, BTCUSDT's two-hour range after the release had a median of 2.17%, against 0.99% in the two hours before. It was wider in 20 of 24 meetings. The data shows more volatility, not a consistent direction.

What time is the FOMC decision in UTC? The statement comes out at 2:00 p.m. New York time. That is 18:00 UTC (21:00 MSK) while the US is on daylight time and 19:00 UTC (22:00 MSK) on standard time. The 24 meetings here had 17 releases at 18:00 UTC and 7 at 19:00 UTC.

Does Bitcoin go up or down after an FOMC decision? Both. After 24 decisions, BTC closed the two-hour window below the release price 16 times and above it 8 times, with a median move of -0.48% and a range of -3.78% to +2.62%. With 24 data points, that is a description of the period, not a pattern to trade.

Is a 2% range normal for Bitcoin? Not for a two-hour window at that hour on ordinary days in the same weeks. Our 96 control windows had a median range of 0.93%. The FOMC after-window was 2.17% at the median.

Where does the data come from? Meeting dates and release times come from federalreserve.gov. Price data comes from Binance's public kline endpoint, fetched on 25 Oct 2026.