FOMC This Week and Bitcoin: Wed 18:00 UTC, PCE and Monthly Expiry

FOMC this week is the main event for Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market. The Federal Reserve decision lands on Wednesday 28 October at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, which is 18:00 UTC and 21:00 MSK, with the press conference 30 minutes later. Thursday brings the PCE price index and the first estimate of US Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, and Friday brings the monthly Deribit expiry at 08:00 UTC. On the chart side, seven of our twelve tracked coins have a bearish 4h bias, two are neutral and three are bullish.

This is a plan for the week, not a forecast. Everything below is a date, a time or a measured number, checked on 25 October 2026.

FOMC this week and Bitcoin: the events

• Wednesday 28 October, 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC, 21:00 MSK): the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve calendar lists a two-day meeting on 27–28 October, with the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (18:30 UTC, 21:30 MSK). Nothing is released on Tuesday 27th. The Fed's meeting calendar does not mark this meeting as one with a Summary of Economic Projections (the dot plot). The US is still on summer time, so 2:00 p.m. ET is 18:00 UTC.
• Thursday 29 October, 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC, 15:30 MSK): the BEA release schedule lists two releases at this time: Personal Income and Outlays for September, and the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP. The PCE price index is published in the Personal Income and Outlays report, so that is the PCE print.
• Friday 30 October, 08:00 UTC (11:00 MSK): the monthly futures and options expiry on Deribit, a crypto derivatives exchange. Deribit's rules put monthly expiries on the last Friday of the month at 08:00 UTC, and the exchange's instrument list shows the BTC-30OCT26 contracts expiring at that time.
• Sunday 1 November, 2:00 a.m. local (06:00 UTC, 09:00 MSK): US daylight saving time ends, per NIST. The UK and EU already moved back on Sunday 25 October, per GOV.UK.

We did not find other scheduled US macro releases in the sources above for this week. Unscheduled news, exchange events and token unlocks are outside this calendar.

What FOMC day looks like in UTC

The decision is at 18:00 UTC, which is after the London session and well after the New York open. On the day, the New York open at 13:30 UTC comes four and a half hours before the statement, so the morning sessions trade into the decision rather than around it. If you want the background on how rate decisions reach crypto, read what the FOMC decision means for crypto.

Thursday is different. The PCE and GDP releases land at 12:30 UTC, an hour before the New York open at 13:30 UTC, so they hit the market just before the New York sweep window starts.

The clocks: London and New York are 4 hours apart this week

Bitcoin does not observe daylight saving, and daily candles still open at 00:00 UTC. What changes is the local-time sessions. The UK went back to GMT on 25 October and the US stays on summer time until 1 November. For this one week London is on UTC+0 and New York on UTC-4, so their clocks are 4 hours apart instead of the usual 5.

In UTC that means the London open is at 08:00 and the New York open at 13:30, a gap of 5.5 hours. On Monday 2 November New York moves to 14:30 UTC and the gap returns to 6.5 hours.

If you use UTC alerts for the New York open, move them by one hour on 2 November. The trading sessions tool shows the current session times, crypto session times after the clock change lists the new windows and kill zones vs sessions explains why anchoring to local time matters.

Where structure stands

We read the 4h bias of every coin we track from the BiasNex engine on 25 October 2026. Bias is the engine's read of the 4h swing structure, not a call on direction.

In last week's preview the picture was five bearish, four neutral and three bullish, so the bearish group has grown. The engine's latest structure events, with the dates it reports:

• BTC is bearish in a trend. Its latest 4h event is a bearish external CHoCH at 80,684.36, dated 24 October. The weekly candle that opened on 19 October at 82,116.00 had a high of 84,898.00, a low of 79,220.74 and a last price of 80,806.70 when we fetched it at 00:25 UTC on 25 October (Binance spot, the week is still open, so the Sunday session can change these numbers).
• ETH is bearish in a trend after a bearish internal CHoCH at 2,351.55 on 24 October. XRP (bearish internal BOS at 1.2954, 23 October) and ZEC (bearish internal BOS at 1,187.5, 23 October) are also bearish.
• BNB, DOGE and SUI are bearish after bearish BOS events on 24 October, internal for BNB (725.62) and external for DOGE (0.07607) and SUI (0.9372).
• SOL is bullish in a trend with its latest event a bullish internal BOS at 108.25 on 21 October. NEAR and STRK are bullish in a pullback, each with a bearish external CHoCH on 24 October (4.621 and 0.04797).
• TAO is neutral in a range after a bearish internal BOS on 24 October. TON is neutral in a range, and its latest listed event dates from 23 June.

Read the Bitcoin market page for the live BTC read; this snapshot will be out of date by Monday's open.

Session ranges: last week against average

How big were the moves in each of our five BTC windows? We compare the average range of the five weekday sessions of 19–23 October with the average of the last 10 completed sessions (15–24 October), as a percentage of price.

London prep was flat (0.25% against 0.24%), London main, New York observe and New York sweep ran above average, and New York main entry was slightly below (1.00% against 1.04%). Two caveats. The 10-session average contains last week's five sessions, so the two series are not independent. It also includes three weekend sessions (17, 18 and 24 October), when ranges are usually smaller, so part of the gap is the weekday effect. For a fairer yardstick, compare weekday against weekday over several weeks.

The London windows are defined in London time, so they moved one hour later in UTC with the 25 October clock change, and Monday 26 October is the first weekday on the new times. Last week's London ranges were measured an hour earlier in UTC than this week's will be.

What to watch

1. Wednesday 28 October, 18:00 UTC (21:00 MSK): the FOMC decision, and the press conference at 18:30 UTC. Note which side of the 80,684.36 CHoCH level BTC sits on before and after.
2. Thursday 29 October, 12:30 UTC: PCE and GDP, one hour before the New York open. Mark whether the 4h structure changes in the New York sweep window (13:30 to 14:10 UTC).
3. The BTC weekly range of 79,220.74 to 84,898.00 as of Sunday night: a 4h close outside it would mean BTC has left the range of the past week.
4. Friday 30 October, 08:00 UTC: the monthly expiry. Deribit's BTC-30OCT26 options had about 136,200 BTC in open interest (contracts of 1 BTC) at 00:27 UTC on 25 October, roughly 35% of all BTC options open interest on the venue and about $11 billion at the 80,784 underlying price. This is a snapshot and open interest changes as positions close.
5. Sunday 1 November, 06:00 UTC: US clocks go back. New York windows move one hour later in UTC from Monday 2 November.

Nothing here predicts where price goes. These are the places where the structure data and the calendar give a reason to look. More weekly and session guides are in the Learn ICT hub, and the daily, weekly and monthly opens guide covers the levels many traders mark at the weekly open.

FAQ

Is FOMC this week and what time is the decision? Yes. The FOMC meets on 27–28 October 2026 and the decision is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October at 2:00 p.m. ET, which is 18:00 UTC and 21:00 MSK. The press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET.

When is the PCE release this week? Thursday 29 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET (12:30 UTC, 15:30 MSK), in the BEA's Personal Income and Outlays report for September. The advance Q3 GDP estimate is released at the same time.

When does the monthly crypto options expiry happen? On Deribit, monthly futures and options expire on the last Friday of the month at 08:00 UTC, which is Friday 30 October 2026 (11:00 MSK).

Why are London and New York only 4 hours apart this week? The UK moved to GMT on 25 October while the US stays on daylight saving time until 1 November. That makes London UTC+0 and New York UTC-4 for one week, instead of the usual 5 hours apart.